Will There Be a Coup in Bangladesh? – Michael Rubin

Staff Correspondent

Michael Rubin, a prominent American writer, analyst, and expert on Middle Eastern and South Asian politics, has raised questions about the possibility of a military coup in Bangladesh in his recent article, *”Will There Be a Coup in Bangladesh?”* Rubin, a senior fellow at the Washington-based American Enterprise Institute, has critically analyzed the country’s ongoing political turmoil.

On August 5, 2024, Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was forced to leave office amidst escalating anti-government protests that turned violent. Unable to suppress the unrest, Sheikh Hasina’s prolonged rule came to an end. Protest leaders subsequently appointed Nobel laureate economist Muhammad Yunus as the interim chief advisor. While Yunus enjoys support among Western diplomats and international organizations, he remains a divisive figure within Bangladesh. His strained relationship with Sheikh Hasina and the ruling Awami League deepened following allegations of corruption in Grameen Bank.

Rubin compares Yunus to Rwanda’s Paul Rusesabagina, suggesting that fame and political ambitions may have led to questionable associations. While Yunus claims the protests were spontaneous, Rubin questions this narrative, hinting at possible foreign involvement aiming to destabilize Bangladesh. He highlights Pakistan’s ISI as a potential actor, citing its discontent over Bangladesh’s close ties with India and opposition to extremist groups like Jamaat-e-Islami, implicated in the 1971 genocide.

Rubin posits that Yunus may either be an “unwitting pawn” of Jamaat-e-Islami or knowingly aligned with the group to undermine Bangladesh’s secular identity. Allegations have surfaced against Yunus for failing to act against attacks on minorities and for targeting Awami League leaders, journalists, and activists with arrests and fabricated charges. Legal experts are reportedly considering taking the case to the International Criminal Court (ICC), as evidence of Yunus’s involvement in human rights abuses grows.

Drawing parallels with Egypt and Turkey, Rubin recalls how the Egyptian military ousted Mohamed Morsi over religious governance and how Turkey’s military forced Islamist leader Necmettin Erbakan to resign in 1997. Rubin warns that the release of al-Qaeda supporters and increasing violence against women, minorities, and secular activists in Bangladesh signal a critical juncture.

Rumors of a coup intensified last week following an emergency meeting of Bangladesh’s military. Rubin speculates that the military might follow Egypt’s example and restore constitutional order. He suggests that the U.S. would likely remain silent if such a move aligns with countering Islamist extremism and restoring democracy.

Ultimately, Bangladesh’s future hinges on the decision of Army Chief Wakar Uz Zaman—whether to allow extremists to prevail or to take decisive action to save the nation.