What was discussed during those one and a half hours?

Opinion

Last Saturday in London, Muhammad Yunus and Tarique Rahman held a two-hour conversation, half an hour of which was spent on meeting arrangements and formal greetings. The remaining one and a half hours consisted of a private discussion, the details of which have not been disclosed in the media. Bangladeshi media outlets have published their own versions of the news. It can be said with certainty that the discussion did not revolve around London’s weather, Professor Yunus’s age, or Tarique’s health. So, what could have been discussed in this secret meeting? Surely something top-secret—something that even their own entourages were not privy to. Was it about adjusting the election date? That wouldn’t require spending 5.5 crore taka to travel to London with an entourage of 37 people.

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It is natural to assume that common topics like Bangladesh’s political situation, elections, and seat-sharing were discussed. But when such discussions are held strictly in private—or when efforts are made to ensure the content does not leak—it becomes certain that the two have reached some understanding that, if revealed, would politically embarrass both. Even Yunus’s “Super Chief Advisor,” Sofiqur Rahman, was kept out of the loop. Essentially, neither wanted the discussion’s contents to become public, as it could trigger adverse reactions. So, what agreements could have been made in this highly confidential meeting? Let’s speculate:

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1. BNP had taken an anti-Yunus, anti-corridor, anti-Khalilur, anti-New Mooring Jetty lease, and anti-America stance. Yunus likely dangled a carrot to end all opposition. Financial incentives may also have been offered. Rumors suggest a significant share of the New Mooring Jetty lease will go to Tarique Rahman. Thus, Tarique had no trouble changing his stance.

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2. BNP’s insistence on holding elections by December aligned with Army Chief General Waker-uz-Zaman’s ultimatum. The two sides were inching closer, which was uncomfortable for Yunus. Yunus sees Waker as his nemesis, and Waker considers Yunus “convicted.” Hence, a negotiation likely took place: “You push the date forward, and I’ll push it back.” By shifting the election from April to February, Yunus effectively derailed any BNP-Waker alignment, dangling the prospect of May-June elections before BNP. Tarique, however, failed to grasp that this would infuriate Waker.

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3. BNP has made contradictory statements about Awami League. Sometimes saying, “Only the people, not anyone else, can decide whether Awami League participates in elections,” while Yunus himself stated, “If BNP agrees, Awami League can contest.” This time, Yunus may have convinced Tarique that if Awami League participates, BNP could drop to third place, shattering Tarique’s prime ministerial ambitions. Thus, elections must exclude Awami League, allowing pro-liberation votes to swing toward BNP. Tarique saw the logic—but failed to realize that without Awami League, Jamaat would emerge as the top contender. Yunus wants this, as he is committed to empowering radical Islamists.

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4. The July Declaration will include provisions BNP has long opposed. Yunus likely secured Tarique’s assurance that BNP would no longer oppose it.

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5. Yunus may have extracted a promise from BNP to stop criticizing Khalilur Rahman’s scandals involving women and to drop demands for the resignation of Khalil and two other advisors. This explains why Yunus had Khalilur Rahman greet Tarique and remain present throughout—turning Tarique’s enemy into a friend with the lure of becoming prime minister.

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6. Yunus may have secured assurances that if BNP forms a government, it will not revisit his 666 crore taka tax evasion case, will grant Grameen Bank a five-year tax holiday, and will legalize all interim government actions from August 5 until BNP’s takeover—preventing any new cases.

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7. Tarique Rahman’s return to Bangladesh must have been discussed. While courts have stayed/withdrawn all cases against him, Tarique may not know that Yunus’s government appealed these stays before leaving office. Now that BNP and Yunus are aligned, the government may withdraw these appeals. But will they? Yunus is a shrewd player—he won’t finalize any deal without leverage. If BNP steps out of line, Yunus could reactivate Tarique’s cases overnight.

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Beyond these seven points, there’s another major repercussion: General Waker. By reaching this understanding, BNP and Yunus have effectively slapped Waker’s “elections must be held by December” ultimatum. Waker knows their 90-minute discussion wasn’t just about moving the election date. He also knows elections won’t happen by mid-February. The joint statement’s ambiguous wording—”elections could be held before Ramadan if reforms and judicial processes are completed”—implies they may not happen at all.

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Those familiar with Bangladesh’s bureaucracy know “could be held” often means “won’t be held.” Yunus will cite “insufficient progress in judicial reforms” to delay elections. “Judicial process” here means prosecuting Awami League leaders. If the interim government couldn’t file chargesheets in ten months, how will thousands of cases be completed in a few months?

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What’s the alternative? Simple. Without “necessary reforms,” elections won’t happen—whether in February or April. So how will Tarique become PM? Also simple. Once the July Declaration takes effect, the current constitution becomes “a piece of paper.” The declaration itself will serve as the constitution, allowing President Shahabuddin to remove General Waker. A national government will form with Yunus as president, Tarique as PM, and a cabinet including Jamaat-BNP-NCP-Hefazat and other stakeholders. Elections will then vanish from public discourse. It’s a meticulously designed, well-protected plan.

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The only person who could dismantle this Watergate-level conspiracy is the one both Yunus and Tarique have arrogantly dismissed—General Waker-uz-Zaman. Or, perhaps, he is part of the plan? If so, everything will blur into chaos, and the public’s fate will sink into the backyard swamp.

-Manzurul Haq
Senior Journalist & Political Analyst