Ally or necessity — why does the US now consider India indispensable?

International Desk

May 26, 2026

Marco Rubio is in India. This four-day visit — Kolkata, New Delhi, Jaipur, Agra — is not just a diplomatic tour. It is actually a confession. The confession is that Washington has realized — without India, its strategy in the Indo-Pacific is incomplete, even ineffective. And it took them more than a year to reach this realization — a year that was disastrous for the relationship between the two countries.

 

India is the only country that can provide a real counterbalance to China, from controlling the sea lanes to confronting China on land borders — India is the only country that can provide a real counterbalance to China, given its geography, military might, and vast defense industry. Not only that, but India has a rapidly growing domestic defense industry, making it not just a buyer but a potential strategic production partner. Washington knew this fact long ago. But in the past year, it has itself brought that relationship to the brink of collapse.

 

2025 was a year of one setback after another. In April, India was slapped with a 25 percent retaliatory tariff. In May, Trump took credit for a ceasefire after a four-day armed clash between India and Pakistan — something India has steadfastly rejected, while Pakistan has offered to nominate Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize. In August, the tariff jumped to 50 percent for continuing to buy oil and weapons from Russia. The message of these punitive tariffs was straightforward — stop buying Russian oil or face economic consequences. Delhi responded in equally straightforward language, calling the tariffs “unfair” and highlighting US duplicity in Russian imports. Then the Iran crisis also strained India’s energy supplies, further complicating the situation. And in the midst of this, Trump shared a post by a US right-wing podcaster calling India a “hellhole” — which provoked a strong reaction in Delhi and left deep scars on the minds of ordinary Indians.

 

This relationship was once called “the defining relationship of the 21st century.” Rubio himself said so. But trust has been shattered due to a mismatch between words and deeds. Some in Delhi’s diplomatic and research circles are viewing this visit as a “moment of revival,” but there is no shortage of skepticism. Multiple sources say that trust in this relationship is now the rarest commodity. The only discussion in Delhi’s diplomatic circles is that the United States is an unreliable partner, which does not hesitate to use trade as a weapon even against its closest allies. The worrying thing is that this narrative is being told in exactly the same tone not only in Delhi — from Brussels to several strategic capitals in Europe. This common sentiment among America’s key allies and partners is a major strategic problem for Washington.

 

India is not sitting idly by, but is actively developing alternative paths. A historic free trade agreement has been concluded with the European Union, which both sides call the “mother of all agreements.” Separate agreements have also been reached with the UK and New Zealand. In this context, only an interim framework agreement with the US has been reached so far — tariffs have been reduced to 18 percent, but this is a temporary patch, not a long-term solution. The main problem is that the US wants more access to the Indian market — especially in the agricultural sector, which India has historically protected and wants to keep in the future. This fundamental conflict cannot be resolved in one visit.

 

India will not back down from its multipolar foreign policy — this is the message that Delhi is sending out more forcefully than ever. It will not stop buying Russian oil, will not join any military alliance, and will not allow foreign military bases. Especially since India shares a long and disputed land border with China, India cannot afford to completely sour relations with Beijing. While the two countries share common interests in ensuring free trade routes in the Indo-Pacific and preventing China’s regional dominance, India never wants the Quad to become a NATO of the Indo-Pacific.

 

Rubio’s visit has therefore adopted a carrot-and-stick policy. India has been offered to buy as much American oil and gas as it wants. There is talk of joint military exercises, technology exchanges and deepening defence interoperability. But analysts say that it is not enough to just make an offer — price, availability and, above all, trust, these three questions must be answered first. India has already shown that it does not bow to pressure.

 

The Quad foreign ministers’ meeting is also a key part of the trip. The last summit of the alliance, which includes the US, India, Japan and Australia, was held in 2024. India was supposed to host the summit this year, but it was canceled due to strained relations between the two countries. This time, India hopes that the ministerial meeting will pave the way for a full summit in the second half of the year, where Trump himself will visit India. But experts warn that whether this summit will materialize depends on whether trust is first restored. In addition, there is still no clear answer to the fundamental question of what the Quad actually is and what its future holds.

 

It is not possible to undo months of damage in four days. But the significance of this visit is not just its length — it is a signal that Washington has realized that the relationship needs to be given real attention. If India is truly to be an essential partner for the United States in the Indo-Pacific, that partnership must be based on equality — not pressure, but respect. Whether the mindset has truly developed in the United States to accept India on its own terms — Rubio’s visit is a test of that question.