Possible multi-dimensional efforts to destroy state stability in Bangladesh

Opinion
Recent developments have increasingly revealed a concerted and multifaceted effort to weaken Bangladesh’s state structure. Analysts say Bangladesh is moving at an unusually rapid pace towards a state failure similar to Iraq, Libya and Syria. Internal political forces and the weak response of the civil-military administration are accelerating this process.

A planned political narrative is being built through provocations centered around the assassination of Sharif Osman Hadi and the presence of Awami League President Sheikh Hasina in India. While vandalism of some established media and cultural institutions is being identified as the work of right-wing groups, there is a parallel effort to present these as “alternative political projects.” Attacks or attempted attacks on diplomatic institutions are being seen as a strategy to maintain public support for this narrative.

There is a growing push to create a so-called “revolutionary government” based on the image of Hadi and the outrage over his assassination. The coordinated speeches, street demonstrations, and organizational moves suggest a structured and pre-planned development. Recent actions by a number of influential figures, both domestic and foreign, are believed to be linked to this development.

In the context of security risks, there have been allegations that the establishment of a law and order structure in the neighborhoods has been ordered, which could challenge the authority of the state security agencies. In the last 14-15 months, there have been claims of militia-style recruitment and training, involving foreign-trained individuals and members of extremist networks. There have also been allegations of the involvement of some retired and serving members of the military.

There have been allegations of organized stances within and around the interim administration. Recent vandalism, public gatherings, and closures of educational institutions are being linked to a manpower mobilization strategy.

The overall assessment shows that a concerted, multi-pronged pressure campaign is underway to push Bangladesh towards a “failed state” situation. Efforts to create alternative power centers pose serious risks to state sovereignty and national security. To address the situation, it is essential to restore political stability through improved intelligence surveillance, lawful and restrained actions, and a clear and timely electoral roadmap.

The risk could escalate rapidly if preventive and institutional measures are not taken immediately. Bangladesh now faces a difficult test in protecting state stability and sovereignty.

-Mrinmoy Sen