Scientists Warn of Super El Niño: Record Global Temperatures and Natural Disasters Feared

❐ International Desk

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Climate scientists have issued a stark warning about this year’s El Niño, a weather phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean that could become the most intense on record, potentially setting global temperature records in 2027 and triggering natural disasters the likes of which have not been seen in a century.

Extreme weather forecast

This year’s El Niño will intensify extreme weather events, both droughts and floods. Meteorologists are using the strongest words to describe it. The UK’s Met Office says the weather conditions will be unprecedented and the strongest in the last 100 years.

El Niño is a natural phenomenon that begins when the winds that normally blow from east to west temporarily weaken, causing warm water that is normally pushed towards the western Pacific Ocean to spread eastward.

Scientists usually declare an El Niño when sea surface temperatures in a particular region of the Pacific Ocean are 0.5 degrees above average. But this year, temperatures were already 2 degrees above average by July.

According to the latest Met Office forecasts, this temperature could exceed 3 degrees by the end of the year. Some are also predicting that temperatures could rise to 4 degrees above average—making it the “El Niño of the millennium.”

Global impacts: droughts, floods and wildfires

Rising Pacific surface temperatures will affect weather patterns around the world, with rainfall decreasing in some places and increasing in others. This could lead to severe droughts, wildfires and devastating floods.

In the past, such conditions have disrupted agricultural production and raised food prices, threatening the food security of millions of people. If the predictions prove correct, the consequences of this El Niño could be more dire than ever before.

Liz Bentley, chief executive of the UK’s Royal Meteorological Society and president of the European Meteorological Society, gave a detailed explanation on the matter.

He said it was aptly named “Super El Niño” because some research centers are predicting temperatures could rise by up to 3 to 4 degrees above average. He said such a strong El Niño had not been seen since 1877.

Bentley explained that in 1877, the world’s climate was much cooler than it is today. The El Niño of that time caused crop failures and famine across India and Southeast Asia, killing millions of people.

He made it clear that he does not expect the same level of famine this time, but that since the world’s climate has already warmed by 1.5 degrees, this El Niño will further increase that warming and temporarily intensify the impacts seen in recent years due to climate change.

He also said that this year’s El Niño is somehow “supercharged”—meaning that extra heat has accumulated in that part of the Pacific Ocean, leading to locally extreme weather events.

He expressed concern that floods will occur in eastern South America and droughts in the western Pacific. Australia will see another wave of wildfires, which will be more severe than previous El Niños.

According to Bentley, global temperatures will continue to rise and 2027 is almost certain to be the warmest year on record—a fact that can be said before the year begins, because this El Niño will add a lot of extra heat and energy to the atmosphere.

Explaining the relationship between climate change and the effects of El Niño, he said that the global temperature has already increased by about 1.5 degrees compared to pre-industrial times—that is the main driving force. Adding to this, Super El Niño will add about a few more tenths of a degree (which could temporarily push the overall warming to about 1.7-1.8 degrees).

However, this increased warming is temporary—El Niño will peak later this year and begin to gradually decline in 2027. However, its impact will be widespread and significant over the next 6 to 12 months.

In India, the monsoon season has already weakened, resulting in less rainfall. Since India is largely dependent on monsoon water for rice cultivation, there could be a food shortage there, which would also affect global food supplies.

In addition, the Panama Canal is already facing problems due to drought—the canal authorities are having to regulate shipping as water levels drop. Overall, whether it takes the form of drought, flood, or heat wave—the impact will be multifaceted over the next six to twelve months, greatly affecting both people and the economy.

Those regions, being close to the Pacific Ocean, will suffer more directly from the effects of El Niño. Australia could experience severe drought and more severe wildfires than in previous years. India’s monsoon has already been affected.

He also said that the increase in global average temperatures has also started to affect regions far from the Pacific Ocean.

Europe will not be left out of its impact either. More rainy and stormy weather may occur in the beginning of winter. A strong El Niño usually increases the intensity of cold in the late winter, as a result, extremely cold, snowy and icy conditions may be seen by February-March next year.

Then, high temperatures will return next year—meaning the heatwave seen this summer is likely to return in a more intense form next summer.

Asked what the most important message was at the end of the interview, Bentley said, “We need to take action now. El Niño is a natural phenomenon and is not directly related to climate change, although scientists are interested in how climate change might affect it.”

However, El Niño will further exacerbate the effects of climate change that have been seen in the past few decades. Therefore, it is necessary to focus on two issues:

1. Limit global warming as much as possible, that is, stop burning fossil fuels as soon as possible and prevent further warming.

2. Building greater resilience to the impacts of climate change—especially the impacts seen this summer, which will be exacerbated by a Super El Niño.