Arakan Army Breathing Down Bangladesh’s Neck as It Gains Ground in Myanmar

International Desk

The Arakan Army, an insurgent group in Myanmar’s Rakhine State, has seized control of the city of Mongdu, putting nearly 270 kilometers of the Bangladesh-Myanmar border under its control. BBC reported that on Sunday, the Border Guard Police’s (BGP) Battalion 5 base, located outside Mongdu, also fell into the hands of the rebels.

Video footage shows Arakan Army forces at their stronghold using weapons, while airstrikes from Myanmar’s military fail to stop their advance.

Since the military coup in Myanmar in 2021 that ousted the elected government, the country has been embroiled in a brutal civil war. The Arakan Army has been fighting against the junta for more than eight months, intensifying its efforts.

Security analysts say that Rohingya-linked groups, such as the Arakan Rohingya Army (ARA) and Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), which initially supported the junta, are now being forced to retreat as the Arakan Army intensifies its attacks.

The BGP-5 base, situated in the Rohingya-majority village of Mayo Thu Gyi, has finally fallen to the Arakan Army. Hundreds of soldiers are believed to have been killed in the ongoing conflict, and reports indicate that soldiers began surrendering in Mongdu on Saturday.

In videos released by the Arakan Army, soldiers are seen waving white flags while surrendering, with some injured troops limping or walking with their legs wrapped in cloth. The Arakan Army has claimed that more than 450 soldiers were killed during the siege of Mongdu. Photos have emerged showing captured Brigadier General Thurain Tun and his officers standing with their heads bowed in front of the rebels’ banners.

Supporters of Myanmar’s military have expressed their frustration on social media. Security experts now view the Arakan Army as one of the most powerful rebel forces in Myanmar.

The ongoing conflict has raised concerns about the future of the approximately 600,000 Rohingya in Rakhine State, particularly since the 2017 mass expulsion of over 700,000 Rohingya. There are still many Rohingya in the Mongdu and surrounding areas, and the Arakan Army’s stance towards them remains unclear.

The situation in the massive refugee camps in Bangladesh, where many Rohingya are currently living, is also precarious. Although some groups had sided with the junta in recent times, the ongoing violence has weakened the Rohingya militias and other factions.

One Rohingya refugee said, “Under the junta’s rule, our situation was already difficult, but now it has become even worse.”

The Arakan Army’s progress in Rakhine poses a significant challenge not only to the junta but also to regional stability. The future of the Rohingya population and their relationship with the Arakan Army has further complicated the already volatile situation.