Revenue Shortfall Hits 420 Billion Taka in Three Months as Collections Fall by 55 Billion Taka Year-on-Year

❐ Staff Reporter

The National Board of Revenue (NBR) has faced a major revenue shortfall in the first three months of the current fiscal year 2026-27. The revenue shortfall from July to September compared to the target stood at around Tk 42,000 crore.

During this period, the overall revenue collection grew by only 1.23 percent. The organization came under pressure at the beginning of the fiscal year due to a major decline in VAT collection and failure to meet the customs target.

In the same period of the last fiscal year, VAT collection was Tk 33,949 crore. This means that collection has decreased by Tk 5,366 crore in the space of one year.

According to NBR sources, the revenue collection target of the organization for the current fiscal year has been set at 6 lakh 4 thousand crore taka. However, the total revenue collection in the first three months was 92 thousand 517 crore taka. As a result, it is necessary to speed up revenue collection to achieve the annual target in the remaining nine months.

The situation of VAT collection is most worrying. The target for this sector during July-September was Tk 56,729 crore. On the contrary, Tk 28,583 crore was collected. This leaves a deficit of Tk 28,146 crore.

In the same period of the last fiscal year, VAT collection was Tk 33,949 crore. This means that collection has decreased by Tk 5,366 crore in the space of one year.

Syed Musfiqur Rahman, the member in charge of VAT implementation at the NBR, said that British American Tobacco has collected about Tk 4,000 crore less VAT. In addition, the overall situation has been affected by the low collection in some sectors. However, he expressed hope that VAT collection will increase by December.

Among the field offices, the Large Taxpayer Unit (LTU) has the highest deficit in VAT. In the first three months, the target of this unit was Tk 32,208 crore. Only Tk 12,941 crore was collected. As a result, the deficit stood at Tk 19,266 crore. The collection in this unit has also decreased compared to the same period last year.

According to officials concerned, the introduction of the rule of submitting VAT returns every three months may have an impact on collection. Earlier, the government used to receive VAT regularly by submitting returns every month. They believe that the collection has been low in the first two months of the fiscal year as traders have the opportunity to submit returns after three months under the new system.

Former NBR member (VAT policy) Dr. Abdur Rouf said, for a long time, the average growth in revenue collection was 12 to 13 percent. Although VAT collection was supposed to increase considering inflation, this time there was negative growth in the first three months. He believes that changing the deadline for filing returns without adequate survey is one of the reasons for this situation.

According to him, VAT collection may be affected as traders prioritize meeting other financial obligations.

Meanwhile, the target for collection of customs and taxes at the import-export level has also not been met. In the first three months, the collection in this sector was Tk 30,129 crore. Although the growth is about 7.5 percent, there is a shortfall of about Tk 12,135 crore compared to the target.

On the other hand, there has been a relatively positive picture in income tax collection. During this period, income tax collection amounted to Tk 33,300 crore, which is 17 percent more than the same period of the previous fiscal year. However, the growth in income tax was not enough to cover the deficit in VAT and customs.

According to NBR officials, administrative weaknesses, frequent transfers and lack of coordination at the field level are also hindering revenue collection. If this trend continues, pressure on the government’s development expenditure and budget implementation may increase. Therefore, preventing tax evasion, regular supervision and revitalizing VAT collection are now important challenges for the agency.