Saudi Arabia and UAE Divided by Fallout from Iran War as Rivalry Grows in the Gulf Region

❐ International Desk

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A war with Iran could have brought Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) closer together, but in reality, Iran’s attacks have upended the equation for the entire Gulf region—hitting tourism, the oil industry, and the way of life there, leaving the two countries more divided than ever.

Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Emirati leader Mohammed bin Zayed were once close friends, even having a mentor-student relationship. Both are authoritarian monarchies and both countries are wealthy from oil wealth.

Saudi Arabia is much larger on the map and has a larger population, so it wants to establish itself as the undisputed leader in the region. On the other hand, the Emirates, although much smaller in size, has transformed itself into a middle power by building up capital and wealth over decades.

The rivalry has now become quite intense. After the Emirates built the world’s tallest building, Saudi Arabia now wants to build an even taller one. The Saudis have also followed suit after a member of the Emirati royal family bought a football club.

The Emirates have transformed Dubai into an international travel and business hub and a symbol of luxury—mainly as part of a strategy to diversify its economy away from oil. Saudi Arabia is now also looking to make Riyadh a hub and is encouraging businesses to relocate there. The Saudis are essentially trying to match the Emiratis.

But the Iran-Iraq war has turned the whole situation upside down. After the US and Israel attacked Iran, Iran retaliated by attacking long-time US allies in the Gulf. Countries where US military bases or installations are located are mainly targeted, but Iran also strikes civilian targets. The Emirates are the worst affected.

The attack sparked a wave of anger in the Emirates—they had hoped that Saudi Arabia and other Gulf monarchies would be more proactive in their support, but they saw no such solidarity. The Emirates then went their own way and withdrew from OPEC, the global alliance of oil-producing countries, so that it could sell more oil without OPEC restrictions and help pay for reconstruction after the Iranian attack.

This decision is significant, because OPEC is an organization primarily led by Saudi Arabia—it has dealt a major blow to the relationship between the two countries, and other member states could follow suit, potentially weakening Saudi Arabia’s leadership.

Saudi Arabia’s claim to regional leadership is based not only on economic power, but also on religious grounds—Mecca is the holiest city in Islam, and Saudi Arabia sees itself as the leader of the Arab Muslim world. Iran also aspires to similar religious leadership, although it follows a different branch of Islam.

Iran has built a network of militias and proxy forces to exert political influence, destabilizing the Middle East. This is why Iran is a common enemy of both Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and the two countries have worked together to counter Iranian influence in places like Yemen.

Yemen borders Saudi Arabia directly and is at the entrance to the Red Sea. In 2015, a Gulf coalition led by Saudi Arabia began fighting Iran-backed Houthi rebels, with the UAE as Saudi Arabia’s main ally. For years, the two countries have carried out airstrikes in Yemen, killing thousands of civilians.

But experts say the two countries never truly agreed on the Yemen issue—it was just an illusion. While Saudi Arabia continued to support the Yemeni government, the Emirates began supporting a separatist movement in the south in 2017, although Emirati officials have denied this support.

Establishing control in southern Yemen was primarily a matter of commercial and geopolitical opportunity for the Emirates, rather than fighting the Houthis. Over time, Saudi Arabia realized that it was fighting the Houthis in the north alone.

The situation came to a head in late 2025, when Saudi forces attacked a port controlled by Emirati-backed separatists. The conflict made it clear that Saudi Arabia and the Emirates had now become geopolitical rivals.

To understand the Emirates’ larger strategy, we need to look at the Socotra Islands in Yemen. The Emirates deployed troops there in 2018, and Emirati-backed separatists have controlled the area since then.

Satellite images show what appears to be military infrastructure, including an airstrip, on the island. Emirati officials, however, have said they have withdrawn all troops from Yemen and are no longer involved; they had previously claimed their presence on Socotra was only for humanitarian purposes. However, experts disagree with this claim.

The Socotra Islands are located at the entrance to the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea—a vital maritime trade route. Geographically, the island is seen as a “floating aircraft carrier.” For the Emirates, this is an opportunity to play a major role in the global supply chain beyond their own sphere of influence.

Saudi Arabia has a much greater geographical advantage over the Emirates in terms of strategic waterways—Saudi Arabia has access to both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, while the Emirates has access only to the Strait of Hormuz. And the Iran-Iraq war has made clear how risky it can be to rely on just one waterway.

The UAE’s strategy to establish a foothold in the Red Sea has extended beyond Yemen. In Sudan, the UAE is accused of supporting the rebel paramilitary RSF, although the UAE has consistently denied this accusation—the goal is primarily to secure access to the coast there.

In Somalia, the Emirates supports the separatist region of Somaliland, which is also located on the coast. With the permission of the separatist Somaliland, the Emirates has built a military base there, developed a deep-sea port suitable for military ships, and modernized an airstrip.

It is unclear exactly how the Emirati military is using these facilities, and the Emirates has avoided giving direct answers when asked about it.

However, overall, the Emirates has become a dominant force in the Horn of Africa through political alliances, investment, and military support.

According to experts, the Emirates are essentially control-centric—they have developed an extensive network of non-state armed groups through which they can exert widespread influence in different areas. This is undermining the geographical integrity of countries and creating opportunities for division.

Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, believes that empowering non-state groups is a risky strategy, as these groups may eventually try to seize state power—which is why Saudi Arabia generally supports established governments, while the Emirates supports non-state groups. This divergent strategy has pitted the two countries against each other in various civil wars and regional conflicts, including in Sudan.

Another major factor driving the rift between Saudi Arabia and the Emirates is Israel. According to reports, the Emirates is working with Israel in the Red Sea region, even on potential military installations in Somaliland. Israel was the first country to recognize Somaliland as a breakaway region.

The report even revealed that Israel had a military and intelligence presence on the island of Socotra. Israel did not respond to requests for comment on this matter.

In addition, various reports have revealed that the Emirates used the Israeli Iron Dome defense system during the Iran-Iraq war—the first known use of this technology outside of Israel or the United States.

The basis for this cooperation was laid by the Abraham Accords, which established diplomatic relations between Israel and the Emirates. The Emirates sought access to Israeli technology and the economy. Saudi Arabia also once considered normalizing relations with Israel, but Israeli actions after Hamas’s October terrorist attacks—the Gaza war, the conflict in Lebanon, and a joint US-led attack on Iran—put a halt to that process.

As a result, Saudi Arabia and the Emirates now view Israel in completely different ways. Saudi Arabia believes it is necessary to keep both Israel and Iran in check, while the Emirates has moved closer to Israel, saying that Iran and Israel cannot be put in the same category—because one country has repeatedly attacked them, while the other has instead protected them.

The Abraham Accords were brokered by the US, which again brings the role of the US into the discussion. The US had long been considered the guarantor of security in the region. But it was because of US bases and installations that the Gulf countries became targets for Iran during the Iran-Israel-US war.

According to experts, this war is the biggest transformative event for the Gulf region—the long-held belief that a US-led system would provide security has largely been shattered.

The United States is no longer seen as able or willing to provide regional security as it once was, and the situation is gradually moving towards a multi-polar regional system, from which the United States is gradually withdrawing.