Will Bangladesh go the way of Pakistan?

Staff Correspondent

Dhaka, 29 August 2024: Renowned Indian geopolitical analyst and strategic expert Brahma Chellaney has expressed deep concern over the recent political instability and economic crisis in Bangladesh in an article published in the Japan Times. Chellaney, who is a professor at the Center for Policy Research in New Delhi and the author of several books on international security and strategic issues, compared the current situation in Bangladesh with the dysfunctional state system in Pakistan in his analysis. He believes that the political instability and rise of Islamist fundamentalism in Bangladesh after the fall of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s government and the establishment of a military-backed interim government pose a risk of leading the country towards a dysfunctional state like Pakistan.

Background of instability

Following the military-backed overthrow of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s government on August 8, an interim government led by Nobel laureate Dr. Muhammad Yunus was formed. The change has seen widespread violence, attacks on religious minorities and economic instability in the country. Bangladesh has applied for a bailout fund worth a total of $6.5 billion, including $3 billion from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), $1.5 billion from the World Bank and $1 billion each from the Asian Development Bank and the Japan International Cooperation Agency. The financial crisis has tarnished the country’s story of economic prosperity, which had been internationally praised until 2022.

Islamist rise and law and order

Chellani’s article says that while Hasina’s rule saw a decline in democratic values, she kept the military and Islamist forces in check. But since her fall, the rise of Islamist groups and attacks on religious minorities have raised fears that Bangladesh could become a crisis state like Pakistan. Like Pakistan, where the military plays a dominant role in national politics, the military has now emerged as the ultimate regulator of national politics in Bangladesh. This influence is evident in the statements of retired Army General M. Sakhawat Hossain, an advisor to the interim government, who referred to ordering the army chief to “break his legs” to prevent political extortion.

Economic and social impact

Under Hasina, Bangladesh achieved political stability and economic growth, in contrast to the long-standing instability in Pakistan. But recent violence and an economic slowdown have set the country back. The economy has been battered by widespread mob violence and destruction of property. In addition, attacks on minorities and a breakdown in law and order are tarnishing the country’s image. India, Bangladesh’s close neighbor, is concerned about the situation and fears an influx of refugees.

International context

Chelani noted that while the US welcomed the fall of Hasina’s government, the instability and Islamist rise in Bangladesh could go against its interests. He suggested that the US should take steps to restore stability and security for minorities by putting pressure on the interim government. In addition, the deterioration of relations with India and efforts to normalize relations with China and Pakistan have created strategic concerns for India. For example, the plan to revive the Lalmonirhat air base with Chinese assistance is seen as a threat to the security of India’s Siliguri corridor.

The current situation in Bangladesh, especially the military influence, Islamist rise and economic crisis, raises the fear of a Pakistan-like failed state. Without sincere efforts to restore national reconciliation and stability, the country could plunge into a deeper crisis. Brahma Chelani warned that this instability in Bangladesh is not only an internal matter of the country, but also poses a threat to regional security in South Asia.