Saudi-US Nuclear Deal: Fears of an Arms Race?

❐ International Desk

The United States recently announced a controversial new nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia, under which Saudi Arabia will have a civilian nuclear program with the help of American companies. Critics fear that this could give Saudi Arabia the ability to enrich its own uranium—essential for making nuclear weapons—and could spark a kind of nuclear arms race in the region.

The United States already has a nuclear deal with the Emirates, which paved the way for the first nuclear power plant in the oil-rich Gulf region. But that deal is much more restrictive and does not allow the Emirates to enrich its own uranium. As a result, the new US deal with Saudi Arabia is being seen as a diplomatic victory for Riyadh.

However, a condition has also been added to it—according to the US President, this agreement will be effective if Saudi Arabia joins the Abraham Accords, that is, normalizes relations with Israel—which Saudi Arabia is not willing to do right now.

While the Emirates is deepening its ties with Israel, Saudi Arabia is looking for additional security partners outside the United States—such as the Muslim-majority country of Pakistan. The two countries have already signed a mutual defense treaty. Pakistan supported Saudi Arabia with air and military support during the Iran-Iraq war, although it also played a role as a mediator in the conflict.

Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are also strengthening their ties with Egypt and Turkey. It is reported that Turkey and Qatar may even join this Saudi-Pakistan defense alliance. That is, on the one hand, these countries are working in a kind of alliance, while on the other hand, the Emirates remains close to Israel and the United States.

Analysts say the Iran-Iraq war was a stress test for all Gulf monarchies, exacerbating pre-existing trends—such as the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the Emirates for economic dominance and regional influence. These differences still exist and are unlikely to ease, if not worsen.

However, it will probably not escalate into direct open conflict, but rather remain below the surface.

A big reason for this is geography. The Emirates, due to its location, is stuck between Iran and Saudi Arabia—a geographical reality that cannot be escaped even if it wanted to. Saudi Arabia is a neighbor that cannot be ignored.

Analysts say that this geographical “captivity” makes it the only realistic option for the Gulf states to work together rather than against each other. But with the entire Middle East still in turmoil, the two rivals seem to be drifting further apart.