The Potential ‘Stalling Innings’ of the Interim Government

Opinion

Elections are not happening anytime soon. At least, this is evident from the remarks made by Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus during a meeting with political parties on February 15 regarding the reports of six reform commissions. The optimism surrounding the formation of a ‘National Consensus Commission’ and the subsequent meetings with political parties will soon fade. In the meeting, 26 parties participated, including BNP, Jamaat-e-Islami, LDP, National Party (K.Za), Citizen Unity, Islamic Movement, Khilafat Majlis, Gono Sanghati Andolon, National Citizens Committee, Gonoadhikar Parishad, and several left-leaning democratic parties. However, most media outlets did not mention the leftist parties! The press advisor to Yunus referred to this meeting of one-third of the 49 registered parties as a “meeting of all political parties.” Interestingly, the participating parties did not raise any questions about this.

The meeting was chaired by Dr. Yunus, accompanied by the heads of the six commissions and the Vice Chairman of the Consensus Commission, Professor Ali Riaz. The government stated that the Consensus Commission would discuss the full reports of the six commissions with political parties and civil society. This implies that the commission will engage with these parties, along with the newly formed student party and a party of retired military personnel, in March.

Chief Advisor’s Press Secretary Shafiqul Alam told journalists, “After the unprecedented mass uprising in July-August, Bangladesh is undergoing a rebirth. We are moving towards a political solution, and this is the beginning of a democratic transition. We hope that the political parties will thoroughly discuss the reports of the six commissions. The decisions based on consensus will be signed by the political parties, forming the ‘July Charter.’ The election date will depend on this July Charter. As the Chief Advisor mentioned, the election will most likely be held by December.”

What does this mean? Over the past six months, we have seen the resignation of the President, the July-August declaration, the annulment of the constitution, the banning of the Awami League, and other issues that created divisions between the government and political parties. The government allowed extreme anarchy, instability, public anxiety, insecurity, persecution of minorities, economic distress, mob violence, and the destruction of Liberation War monuments and memorials to proceed unhindered. Meanwhile, the government spent its ‘first innings’ forming the ‘King’s Party’ with state funds and patronage. Now, they are set to begin their ‘second innings.’

What can we expect in the ‘second innings’? The meeting did not specify a clear election date. Instead, several conditions were attached. “Elections by December? Fakhrul and others have been assured!” However, the government says, “The Consensus Commission’s term is six months. When will the elections be held? It depends on the political parties. Reforms depend on the consensus of political parties. Now, the election will be based on the charter of the mass uprising. Finally, Dr. Yunus said, ‘The election may be held by December.'” Note the use of the word “may.” If the election is not held by December, they can say, “We never said it would definitely happen.”

In the next six months, they will engage in what can clearly be called a ‘stalling innings.’ Let’s see what ‘cards’ they will play:

1. Reform Games: They will muddy the waters by adding and removing reforms from the six commissions to buy time. For example, Ali Riaz has proposed controversial changes, such as amending the 1972 constitution and changing the name of Bangladesh. The Public Administration Reform Commission has also presented contentious proposals, such as dividing the country into four provinces and splitting the cadre service. This will create intense dissatisfaction within the administration. If political parties oppose these proposals, the government will say, “Reforms depend on the consensus of political parties. Since they are opposing, we cannot proceed with elections until these issues are resolved.”
2. Referendum: The Constitution Reform Commission has proposed a referendum, which is beyond its mandate. Government-supported parties will back this, while BNP and other election-focused parties will oppose it. The game begins…
3. Local Government Elections: BNP and many other parties do not want local government elections before the national elections. However, the government and its supported parties want local elections first. BNP fears that local elections will trigger infighting among its grassroots leaders, leading to a loss of control. Infighting over turf and extortion is already ongoing.
4. Banning the Awami League: Although the government backed off from banning the Awami League in October due to warnings from the UN Human Rights Council and other international bodies, the issue is occasionally revisited. The government knows that foreign powers will not accept excluding the Awami League from elections. To divert attention, the government has reintroduced the ban issue. Rumors suggest that BNP, which previously opposed the ban, has now agreed to it. It is also rumored that the government has persuaded BNP by offering to withdraw Tarique Rahman’s cases. The government uses the ban issue to divert public attention whenever law and order or commodity prices spiral out of control.
5. Updated Voter List: The government will easily stretch this issue until March-April 2026. Although the voter list will be updated by June, the final preparations for voting will take until March-April of the following year.
6. Law and Order Situation: The current extreme anarchy will worsen as election fever rises. The government will then say, “The police, in their current state, cannot maintain law and order. About 80% of the police are still ‘dalals’ from the Awami League era. We cannot risk elections without reforming them.”

After playing these ‘cards,’ political parties, especially BNP and Jamaat, will not sit idle. To tackle these two parties, the government has already started using two more trump cards. For BNP, there is the threat of reinstating Tarique Rahman’s withdrawn cases. For Jamaat, the government will further delay their registration. Jamaat is not registered with the Election Commission and has previously contested elections under the symbol of a sheaf of paddy. This time, despite having their ‘own government,’ they have not yet regained their registration.

BNP and Jamaat are already at odds over various issues. The government will further fuel this conflict. Jamaat, like the government, wants local elections first, which BNP opposes. Incidents of BNP student wing being attacked by Jamaat’s student wing have occurred multiple times. Jamaat and other Islamist parties do not take BNP’s 16-year movement seriously. This will lead to clashes between the two parties, furthering the government’s plan. If the situation is not sufficiently chaotic, or if elections seem distant, the government will orchestrate large-scale organized crime to destabilize public life. For this, 20-22 lakh radicalized individuals, including a significant number of Rohingya refugees, are being prepared. Recently, the government has allowed them to freely integrate into Bengali communities by removing police verification from passports.

In short, when Dr. Yunus says the election “may be held by December,” he implies that before December, the government will gradually implement these meticulously designed plans to create such chaos that both domestic political parties and foreign observers will be forced to say, “The environment is not conducive to elections now.” Do you understand?

Despite all these ‘tricks,’ a certain class of discredited leftist parties may continue to parrot democratic slogans and pat themselves on the back, dreaming of overthrowing the ‘fascist’ government and establishing a just society through free, fair, and impartial elections to realize the people’s democratic rights. In reality, the government occasionally invites them for tea and coffee, takes photos with them, and in return, they sing the government’s praises to gain its trust. Dr. Yunus, too, will solidify his long-cherished position at the pinnacle of power.

But the problem is, just as winter does not end in a single Magh (Bengali month), not every dive yields a water lily. This is something that those circling the corridors of power fail to grasp. Just as we ordinary people are afraid, those in power should also be wary of playing such dangerous games with so many lives at stake.

– Manzurul Haq
February 17, 2025