Trump, Putin, Xi — who owns the world now?

❐ International Desk

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With the arrival of one head of state after another in Beijing, China is positioning itself as the center of a new world order — but experts say the real question of power is not so simple.

US President Donald Trump has just left Beijing, and even before that, Chinese President Xi Jinping has rolled out the red carpet for his next guest — Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Whether these two high-level visits are coincidental or not, they send a clear message to the world: Beijing has now become a place where the world’s most powerful leaders come. Xi Jinping is holding court, and the rest are coming to him.

China has long said that the world is undergoing a “once-in-a-century” transformation. Beijing is actively trying to shape a new world order to exploit this change to its advantage.

However, experts are raising questions — how much of this role is real leadership and how much is just politics of image and symbols? Leadership means not just showing strength, but also taking responsibility. And analysts believe that Beijing is still reluctant to take on that responsibility.

China wants to be considered an equal to the United States, wants greater geopolitical influence — but is unwilling to shoulder the overall burden of managing a complex global system.

The nature of the two leaders’ visits and the composition of the delegations they brought with them make this difference clear. Trump arrived in Beijing with the heads of Silicon Valley’s top tech companies — companies that have huge investments in the Chinese market and are unable to completely withdraw from China.

Putin came with top energy executives because energy exports to China are now key to sustaining Russia’s economy. Both delegations are saying the same thing — that the world’s two major powers are, willingly or unwillingly, becoming dependent on China.

Analysts believe that Putin’s visit went beyond mere diplomatic courtesy and had several specific goals.

First, Russia is not isolated internationally — a message that was important to convey, as Putin has been losing allies one after another recently. Hungary, long known as Russia’s European mouthpiece, is slowly withdrawing. Armenia is moving out of Russia’s orbit. The domestic situation in Iran is also uncertain.

In this context, it was essential for Putin to create an image of a strong and reliable partnership by standing next to Xi Jinping.

The second goal was to finalize the deal for the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, a pipeline from Siberian gas fields to the heart of China that is strategically important to Russia — as it would make China more dependent on Russian energy and bring some balance to economic relations between the two countries.

But that agreement did not happen again. Experts see this as the biggest failure of the tour.

The third goal was to gain strategic assurances in the Ukraine war. Putin wanted to ensure that China would not abandon Russia if the war dragged on. The Russia-China joint declaration expressed support for a multipolar world order, although China did not directly say it would support Russia in Ukraine.

It is important to understand both the depth and the limitations of this relationship between Russia and China. Economically, Russia is now so dependent on China that it can be called an unequal relationship. More than a quarter of Russia’s total exports go to China — mainly crude oil, natural gas, and coal.

Russia, on the other hand, imports electronics, machinery, cars, and dual-use goods — which can also be used for military purposes — from China.

Before the war in Ukraine, there were concerns and attempts to strategize about this dependence in Kremlin-close circles. But since the war began, those concerns have faded into the background, and Russia has become increasingly dependent on China.

According to analysts, Putin is actually acting as a “useful tool” for Xi Jinping. Russia is pressuring the West, testing NATO’s defense capabilities in Ukraine — and China is observing the situation from afar and learning its own strategic lessons, especially on the Taiwan issue.

Western countries have repeatedly tried to break this relationship between China and Russia. There was a common idea in Trump’s inner circle that the US president might be able to separate the two countries by playing them off against each other.

But experts say this hope is unrealistic, because both China and Russia see the United States and the existing international system as their main adversaries. They both see this system as unfair and want to change it.

As long as this fundamental vision remains the same, it will be difficult to separate the two countries — no matter how many problems there may be between the two countries.

Questions are being raised about Trump’s visit to China and his warm treatment of Xi Jinping.

Analysts believe that China understands Trump well and is taking advantage of him. Trump tried to pressure China early last year, but China retaliated — threatening to ban exports of rare earth minerals. Trump has been wary and is now trying to avoid conflict with China.

This is a major diplomatic victory for China. They have proven that the United States is obligated to talk to them on an equal footing.

In this context, the Taiwan question is becoming particularly worrisome. Analysts believe that Trump’s soft stance is giving China the opportunity to increase pressure on Taiwan — not through direct military aggression, but through a series of smaller steps.

China is surrounding Taiwan by blocking the use of third-country airspace when the Taiwanese president tries to travel to Africa, and isolating Taiwan on the international stage. In addition, although the United States is legally obliged to provide Taiwan with arms, Trump has withheld the arms package, which analysts believe indicates a surrender to Chinese pressure.

Europe’s position in this whole situation is extremely uncomfortable. On the one hand, the United States is no longer in a role of trusted leadership, while on the other hand, China and Russia are challenging existing international rules.

Europe has long relied on diplomacy and trade, but soft power alone is not enough in this new geopolitical environment. The recent visits to Beijing by several European leaders, including Germany and Spain, reflect Europe’s dilemma: unable to cut ties with China, but also unable to fully surrender to China’s strategy.

But experts say it’s not that Europe is completely without leverage. Europe’s vast internal market and existing policy tools could be used effectively against both China and the United States — if there is political will. But the problem is a lack of political unity.

The European Union is only as strong as its larger member states give it the power it needs. And the member states are still not sufficiently united in giving it that power. It is a race against time — and many analysts say Europe is falling behind.

Ultimately, what factor will be decisive in this battle for world domination?

The experts’ answer is clear — economic power and technological capability. Not military might or the threat of nuclear weapons, but who will lead in artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and green energy technologies — that will determine who will lead the future global order. And as such, China is in a very powerful position right now — and that is the biggest concern for the Western world.

Deutsche Welle To The Point