US Study Predicts 125 Million Deaths in a Potential India-Pakistan Nuclear War

International Desk

Dhaka, May 7, 2025: A U.S. study has projected that a potential nuclear war between India and Pakistan in 2025 could result in the immediate deaths of approximately 125 million people. The conflict is expected to have catastrophic climatic effects, leading to global famine and millions of additional casualties. Researchers from Rutgers University’s Department of Environmental Science have outlined these dire scenarios.

The study presented hypothetical war scenarios.

In one scenario, a terrorist attack on the Indian Parliament kills top leaders, prompting India to launch an assault on Pakistan. Pakistan responds with nuclear weapons, and India retaliates, escalating into full-scale nuclear warfare.

In another scenario, a conflict begins with Indian military action in Kashmir, quickly spiraling into a nuclear exchange. Researchers noted that rational leadership on both sides could prevent such outcomes, but uncontrolled tensions could trigger a disaster.

Professor Alan Robock of Rutgers University stated, “India and Pakistan are steadily expanding their nuclear arsenals. This region has the highest probability of nuclear conflict.” The study involved workshops with retired generals from both countries to analyze potential triggers and responses. Robock cautioned, “These scenarios are hypothetical but highlight how easily events could spiral out of control.”

The year 2025 was chosen as a possible timeline, but Robock clarified, “This war could occur at any time—even tomorrow. The timeline merely illustrates the potential consequences.”

Indian military analyst Major General Dipankar Banerjee dismissed the study as purely speculative, questioning its scientific basis. However, he acknowledged that accidental or emotionally driven conflicts remain a constant threat.

Pakistani nuclear scientist Dr. Pervez Hoodbhoy supported the study’s conclusions, citing persistent risks of war. He noted that events like the 2019 Pulwama attack and Balakot airstrike could have escalated into nuclear confrontation under different circumstances.

Researchers emphasized that daily skirmishes and longstanding hostilities along the India-Pakistan border make the region more volatile than a traditional Cold War. The study serves as a stark warning to the global community about the nuclear risks in South Asia.