What Could Be Awami League’s Trump Card Now?

Opinion

Until the third quarter of August 5th, we didn’t realize it was the last day of the Awami League government’s previous term. We found out through Army Chief Waqar Uz Zaman’s speech. However, notice how many Awami League leaders, MPs, and ministers were leaving the country from the end of July.
Were they apprehensive, or did they get a hint?
The answer might be dialectical; hence, it’s hard to say yes or no!

So, what was the reason for leaving the country? One answer could be Awami League’s prior preparations! Despite the turbulent country, if there was no preparation, the successive departures of important figures wouldn’t have received a green signal.

From the beginning of the quota reform movement to the movement continuing with the demand for the government’s resignation, Awami League repeatedly alleged a conspiracy. They said the movement’s goal was to overthrow the government. They also repeatedly mentioned the involvement of Western countries. Sheikh Hasina repeatedly stated that many didn’t want to see them in power. She repeatedly hinted at the U.S. She also mentioned conspiracies surrounding St. Martin’s Island. Many influential ministers of the government also spoke about the conspiracy.

The deadly intelligence team under the Awami League government might have already hinted at this to the government. For this reason, the government ensured one by one the safe departure of many. Before that, Sheikh Hasina’s return to the country from China by shortening her visit also suggests hints of such preparations.

It was impossible to send everyone abroad at once, so for those who stayed in the country, the government ensured safe departure paths for notable figures. As a result, we see that even though ministers like Obaidul Quader and Asaduzzaman Kamal stayed in the country for a long time after the government’s fall, they eventually managed to leave. Besides, we also learned from various sources that many ministers and MPs were under military custody, most of whom were not arrested.

Those who were arrested were mostly controversial. Even if all of them are convicted in the judicial process arranged by the Yunus government, it won’t harm Awami League much. Instead, Awami League will benefit. They will show the government’s vengeance on one hand and say that the guilty members of Awami League have already faced justice on the other hand.

On August 5th, those responsible for the security of Ganabhaban had nothing to do against the flood of protesters. Still, there was evidence of preparation here too. Sheikh Hasina’s safe exit was ensured. From the airplane, protocol was provided up to Bangladesh’s airspace, and after that, India provided their protocol. Even though it’s unprecedented, it’s a reality. Afterward, India arranged an all-party meeting to keep Sheikh Hasina as a state guest. She is still staying there in that capacity.

After the fall of the government, widespread crimes against humanity were committed against Awami League leaders and activists across the country. Although they are disoriented in this tough time, the party has kept a way to return. This also seems to be due to prior preparation.

If you observe, in five months, Awami League hasn’t tried to make a comeback in the country. They are not even considering field activities yet. This is primarily strategic politics. Awami League wanted the united front against them to break apart.

Had Awami League tried to return immediately after Yunus’s government took power, all anti-Awami League forces would have stayed united against them. Their unity would have remained strong. Isolated incidents in Gopalganj prove this point.

Awami League remains silent. This has created a firm belief among anti-Awami League political forces that the party will not return. They can’t return. They won’t be allowed to return. As a result, conflicts of interest among them have increased. They have turned against each other.

The Awami League is now waiting for more severe conflicts of interest among its opponents. Conflicts between BNP-Jamaat, BNP and anti-discrimination student groups, and between the student groups and others are intensifying. This wouldn’t have been so visible if Awami League were in the field. Awami League activists are being attacked, enduring it, and seeking global support. Meanwhile, they are presenting themselves as oppressed to suppress public outrage domestically.

The Awami League’s absence from the field is a strategy; similarly, its leader-ministers’ safe exits in July-August were strategic. They prayed wholeheartedly for the failure of the new government and wished for conflicts among August beneficiaries; both their wishes seem to be coming true.

Disregarding the widespread belief that they can’t return, they will aim for a comeback with their team. They may initially send an advance group to the country to stage some activities, accept arrests, and create a stir. Leaders are on standby!

Awami League is waiting for the election schedule. The Yunus government, along with anti-discrimination student groups, doesn’t want to let them participate. This stance itself could be Awami League’s trump card.

The global powers, especially the dominant ones, focus on elections. Their eyes are on participation. “Inclusive election”—these much-discussed words could become the ultimate weapon in future politics!

—Kabir Ahmed
Journalist and Political Analyst