When the Rice Crisis Begins, They Won’t Wait for Party Calls

– Manzurul Haq

The market system isn’t microcredit where loan installments can be collected by confiscating rice tins or cows from barns. Market economies don’t bow to radical terrorism, mob violence, or threats from newly-emerged government-backed hooligan squads. Under economist Muhammad Yunus’s stewardship, Bangladesh’s economy now lies face down in the mud.

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Large sections of businessmen have been harassed with “League affiliate” labels. Many major industrial groups have shut down. Nearly two hundred thousand workers have lost jobs. About 250 garment factories closed. Even established garment factories have withheld salaries for 3-4 months. With 90% of this sector’s raw materials previously coming from India, supplies have stopped.

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The garment sector’s biggest blow came from India canceling transshipment and land port facilities. Export costs per kg skyrocketed from $1.20 to $3.20. Shipments changing carriers thrice between Chittagong and Europe now miss deadlines. Rising logistics costs have slashed wages.

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Banks face liquidity traps. No industrial loans are being taken. Excess liquidity grows.

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During Ramadan, Jamaat paused its syndicate operations for a month while the government attempted to buy goodwill through subsidized commodity prices. Post-Eid, markets resumed their upward spiral.

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Despite BPC and Titas issuing explanatory statements, the harsh reality remains – many factories aren’t getting adequate gas. Raw materials imported from China now cost triple, further depressing wages. Factories compensate losses by withholding or halving salaries.

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Extortion runs rampant. BNP and Jamaat lead the extortion rackets, joined by new mob forces. BNP’s leadership fails to restrain its cadres. Jamaat operates a meticulous, untraceable extortion system – victims stay silent out of fear. Journalists reporting on Jamaat’s extortion face termination. Many businessmen, victimized by threats and extortion, are shutting down operations.

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Within weeks, half of Bangladesh’s industrial plants – especially those dependent on Indian raw materials – will close. Hundreds of thousands will lose jobs.

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Meanwhile, from Patna across Uttar Pradesh, hundreds of new garment factories emerge, absorbing orders diverted from Bangladesh.

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Following transshipment cancellations, land corridor closures, and Delhi’s air dumping facility shutdown, India’s food export bans loom. After Bangladesh’s “cannon fire” rhetoric, India maintains “sanctions mode” temporarily. The cunning merchants’ designs regarding the Seven Sisters and overzealous local agents’ provocations may invite harsh responses under any pretext. Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma’s “two chicken necks of Bangladesh” theory hints at this trajectory.

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While NBR buckles under crisis, the government fuels flames by passing repressive laws against experienced bureaucrats while appointing “July warriors” to the Secretariat. The Secretariat has become a powder keg. Amid employee noncooperation, a two-day pen-down strike across all secretariats begins Tuesday. Forced confrontations today-tomorrow will worsen tensions.

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To divert attention from crises, relentless anti-India cards are being played. After BNP-Jamaat, Yunus now deploys so-called leftist factions (barely 3.5 parties) for anti-India maneuvers. Like “the goat’s third kid,” these groups blame India for all crises, using anti-India rhetoric to mask their irrelevance.

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While systematically undermining national economy, politics and global standing, the merchant government obediently implements Western masters’ orders – the Rakhine corridor deal and Chittagong port lease.

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Will such maneuvers ultimately succeed? No. Because empty stomachs override political gambits. Famine approaches. No amount of hollow rhetoric, strong-arm tactics, mob violence or war-mongering can permanently control market realities through political maneuvering.

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Political parties obsess over power-sharing calculations. From major to microscopic factions, all dream of power. Even the 3.5-member party believes tea-and-photo sessions guarantee future governance roles. Hence, none genuinely confront this crisis alongside the people. How long will citizens endure? Until rice runs out. When the food crisis hits, they won’t await party calls. They’ll flood the streets en masse. All parties, the government and its influencers will then confront real anarchy.