Analysis: Mob and banking crisis part of same meticulous plan

– Dr. Mamunur Rashid

 

There is an important theory in economics called “dual shocks.” The first shock is the destruction of businesses by mobs. The second shock is the banking sector crisis caused by the inability of destroyed businesses to repay their loans.

 

This type of crisis is not new. Almost every regime change is accompanied by this “planned” destruction as part of a meticulous plan. From the Jakarta crisis or the Sri Lanka crisis to the recent Bangladesh banking sector crisis, the same method has been followed.

 

Its purpose is twofold:

1) Destroying the businesses of those meticulously designed to change and weakening their power in the banking sector, so that they cannot stand up again after the destruction.

 

2) To break the wheels of the country’s economy through a large-scale coordinated policy of repression. To entangle the country in a debt trap. To destroy all the country’s decision-making capacity. To disintegrate the people in such a way that at least two or three decades later they cannot stand. And when this power is reduced, they will be forced to sell all strategic assets.

Triple shock to Bangladesh’s banking sector

Contrary to the dual shock approach, Bangladesh’s economic and banking sectors have been hit by a triple shock due to the fraudulent regime change of 2012.

 

These three shocks are:

1) Mobs destroy businesses

2) Destroy the relevant banking sector

3) Rehabilitating ruined businesses and the banking sector by giving preferential treatment to “specific groups”.

 

Let’s look at some data to see how this destruction is possible.

1) It started with a coordinated propaganda of almost 5 years that S Alam has emptied all the banks. But till now all the institutions of S Alam are making profits. Islami Bank was fine as long as S Alam was with it. Now, by taking power by force, 5000 employees have been forcibly dismissed. About 7,000 new cadres involved in Jamaat politics have been given jobs in this one bank.

 

It is clear that this is more than whether they have emptied S Alam’s money, but the bigger issue is that this propaganda has been done because of the loss of power in the Jamaat-e-Islami bank. Rather, the fact that Jamaat has used this bank to launder thousands of crores of taka in the country and abroad, using a bank to rehabilitate its own party members is corruption in any economic policy. That corruption was committed by an Islamic party, which killed 3 million Bengalis in 1971 in the name of religion. In July, it wants to sell the country to the army and foreign powers by deceiving them and turning Bangladesh into Pakistan.

 

2) In the name of reforming the banking sector, it has forcibly merged five banks and looted about 10 billion dollars from the banking and financial sector. Now, the BNP is again holding the government hostage and allocating thousands of crores of taka of the people of Bangladesh’s money in the name of Islamic banks, whereas the BNP government has allocated only 40,000 crore taka in the budget for reforming the entire banking sector.

 

3) In the meantime, the defaulted loans, which were 13% in June 2024, have risen to 35% in 2026. For this, it was not helpful to blame the Awami League for a few days. The newspaper report suggests that the defaulted loans have increased due to the destruction of businesses by mobs.

 

4) In the meantime, the third shock came. Due to the collapse of the NBR and the government’s revenue deficit due to the mob, the government’s dependence on debt to meet its expenses was increasing. Due to the high risk, foreign loan commitments also started to decrease. In this situation, the government was forced to borrow more from the banking sector. Although this loan could have been taken from many good banks, Ahsan Mansur’s central bank arranged this loan from certain banks.

 

Private sector credit flows have reached a 21-year low. In such a situation, borrowing from a few specific banks has put about two-thirds of other banks in danger. Due to the lack of credit flow and the default of good loans due to mobs, the amount of non-performing loans in 2026 is about 35%.

 

See how Ahsan Mansur has given benefits to five banks in the attachment. A comparative difference is shown between 2023 and 2025. While the interest income of the banks is almost negative, the income from other sectors has increased several times. While the loss from interest of City Bank is 82%, the income from other sectors is 282.7%. The loss from interest of Prime Bank is 59%, the income from other sectors is 156.6%. The loss from interest of BRAC Bank is 22%, the income from other sectors is 167.7%. These other sectors are the banks’ investments in government treasury securities.

 

Draw two conclusions from the above calculation.

1) Jamaat and a large section of the banking sector along with Yunus and Ahsan Mansur are responsible for this destruction of the banking sector. The main reason for blaming the Awami League is to divert your attention from this huge loot.

 

2) If you think a little, you will see how BRAC and City Bank are involved in the July terrorist attacks. During the 2007-08 military-backed government, a fake case was filed against Sheikh Hasina through Prime Bank director Azam J Chowdhury.

 

3) So much propaganda against S Alam but nothing has come forward as evidence. Yet it has been reported that many BNP members won elections riding in S Alam’s car. But despite committing a bigger crime, City Group is still receiving all the help from the government and the banking sector. Why? I leave this question to you.