Is Banning Awami League Aimed at Making Elections Uncertain?

Opinion

The government could ban Awami League with just one press release, yet it hasn’t taken that path in nine months. However, they’ve now begun working toward that goal.

Banning Awami League would allow the government to arbitrarily arrest its leaders and activists. To avoid arrest, Awami League members currently cannot openly oppose the government.

The daily flash processions Awami League holds across the country already face government obstruction, with leaders arrested daily. This will intensify, increasing both arbitrary arrests and social disorder.

Will banning Awami League complete the government’s agenda?

No.

Next, they’ll openly target BNP, creating election uncertainty. Though BNP strongly demands elections, it hasn’t created conditions to secure them. Banning Awami League would affect BNP’s grassroots too – its activists would fear joining anti-government protests.

Notably, BNP Chairperson Begum Khaleda Zia returned after four months with her daughters-in-law, but acting Chairman Tarique Rahman couldn’t return.

Has BNP gained the expected political advantage after Awami League’s ousting? In my view, no. Had conditions been favorable, Tarique Rahman would have returned by now.

Doesn’t this suggest reality differs from appearances?

Since returning, has Khaleda Zia – a two-time former Prime Minister and leader of a major party – spoken about politics? This silence speaks volumes.

The government’s plan to strengthen NCP by keeping Awami League has failed due to leadership weaknesses. Now they’ve chosen a second path: banning Awami League first, then applying the same tactics to BNP.

This strategy revives mob tactics – presenting staged protesters as representing all parties and people. Despite banning gatherings near the Chief Advisor’s office, programs continue there with city corporation-provided water sprays for comfort. The Chief Advisor’s press wing then hinted at banning Awami League.

Doesn’t every step seem meticulously planned?

After nine months out of power, Awami League activists believe they won’t regain power soon. They know election participation is unlikely, and victory impossible if they do participate. So they wait.

With Awami League waiting, BNP remains the main claimant to power. But elections – the path to power – remain uncertain. The December election timeline has shifted to June, which even political parties now doubt. Thus BNP’s path to power grows longer.

A plan to create instability by banning Awami League is underway. Whether Awami League participates or agencies orchestrate unrest, the result will be the same: no election environment. Meanwhile, the government has made EU Ambassador Michael Miller comment on supposed reforms, shifting focus from participatory elections.

Nine months into the interim government, only Chhatra League has been banned. Juba League and Swechchhasebak League may follow soon. They’ll wait to ban Awami League until election demands peak. Any resulting nationwide chaos could further delay elections.

As elections get postponed, BNP suffers organizationally. Conversely, delays help Awami League as frustration grows – even BNP members now support the Yunus government despite Awami League’s opposition. When BNP reaches peak frustration, all anti-government voices may unite, with BNP activists embracing Awami League’s stance.

The government understands Bangladesh’s two-party system won’t disappear. Eliminating one half won’t work – people mention Awami League and BNP together. Thus they’ve adopted an all-out plan.

Banning Awami League is their first concrete step – the rest will follow in due course…

-Kabir Yahmad
Writer, Blogger and Online Activist