Rakhine Corridor: An Uncertain Gamble for Bangladesh’s Sovereignty and Security

Opinion

The Bangladesh government’s recent approval of the ‘Rakhine Corridor’—which is being proposed to send humanitarian aid to Myanmar’s conflict-ridden Rakhine State—may seem like a compassionate initiative in humanitarian terms, but its underlying political, diplomatic, and security complexities signal a deep crisis for Bangladesh. In reality, the future of this corridor is as uncertain as its potential consequences for the country’s sovereignty and security.

1. Rakhine: An Active Battlefield
Rakhine State is currently embroiled in intense conflict between the Arakan Army (AA) and the Myanmar military. AA now controls a large part of Rakhine and has established an almost independent administrative structure. In this context, the opening of a humanitarian corridor by Bangladesh into the Rakhine region means directly entering an unsafe battlefield, which goes beyond normal diplomatic and security practices. The corridor also raises concerns about the potential increase in drug, weapon, and terrorist infiltration across the border. Bangladesh’s southeastern border is already a security risk, and with the corridor in place, it could become even more unregulated.

2. Risk of Getting Trapped in International Geopolitics
The area where the Rakhine Corridor is to be established lies at the center of strategic interests of major powers in South and Southeast Asia. China has already established the Kyaukphyu deep-sea port and oil and gas pipelines in Rakhine, which are part of their ‘Belt and Road Initiative’. On the other hand, India is connecting Mizoram with the region through the Kaladan multimodal project. If Bangladesh establishes the corridor, it will essentially become caught between the geopolitical rivalry of China and India. Bangladesh’s diplomatic and military capabilities to handle the pressures from these two major powers remain questionable.

3. Hindrances to Rohingya Repatriation
The idea that the humanitarian corridor will help resolve the Rohingya crisis is unrealistic. In fact, this initiative could further deteriorate Bangladesh’s relationship with Myanmar. If Myanmar interprets this move as Bangladesh showing “partial sympathy” to the Arakan Army, it could delay the repatriation process of the Rohingyas. On the other hand, China, which has been playing the role of a mediator, might also see the corridor as Bangladesh’s stance against the Myanmar government, thereby increasing diplomatic pressure on Bangladesh. Relations with China will worsen.

4. A Major Threat to Bangladesh’s Sovereignty
The most serious and long-term risk of this corridor is the question of sovereignty. Once the corridor is established, international organizations and foreign powers will have regular access to Bangladesh’s territory. This would weaken the control of the country’s security forces and administration. Moreover, if the corridor is internationally recognized as a “neutral humanitarian zone,” it will directly undermine Bangladesh’s policy stance and decision-making power. If foreign media or rival nations claim that “Bangladesh is supporting insurgents,” it could place Bangladesh in a complex and uncomfortable position internationally.

5. Risk of Internal Violence Like a Civil War
If a semi-autonomous region is created along Bangladesh’s southeastern border through the Rakhine Corridor, where foreign agencies, local or international insurgent groups, and state forces are active for different purposes, it could lead to a catastrophic civil war-like situation for Bangladesh. Bangladesh already has a long history of tensions with indigenous groups and armed elements in the Chittagong Hill Tracts. If the Rakhine Corridor becomes operational, it will disturb the balance of power in the region, potentially increasing local discontent, ethnic discrimination, land grabbing, and conflicts with security forces. In such a scenario, weapons smuggling and the rise of extremist groups will become inevitable. Particularly if any party uses the corridor for military or political purposes, it could eventually lead to armed conflict or civil war within the country. If a civil war-like conflict begins inside the country, it will not remain confined to the border areas but will destroy the country’s political stability, economy, and international image.

No Corridor, Diplomatic Settlement Needed
While the Rakhine Corridor appears to be created for humanitarian purposes, in reality, it carries multifaceted political and strategic risks. It will not provide a sustainable solution to the Rohingya crisis and will disrupt sovereignty, security, and diplomatic balance. Bangladesh should abandon this risky corridor plan and engage in alternative diplomatic strategies to reach an understanding with Myanmar. The only effective way to resolve the Rohingya repatriation and Rakhine crisis is through international dialogue, regional cooperation, and multilateral diplomacy. No one has the right to sell the country by pleasing the Americans. No compromises should be made with any foreign powers, even for a fraction of our territory.

Saifur Rahman
Blogger and Online Activist