Opinion
First of all, let me say that as a blind devotee of the Honorable Prime Minister, the daughter of the Father of the Nation, Bangabandhu Sheikh Hasina, I analyze her thoughts meticulously and follow in her footsteps. According to the rules of mathematics, I see two and two as four, not twenty-two!
So, very recently, a much-discussed 10-year military agreement between India and the United States was concluded. Today’s article is about how much I can dream about as a Bangladeshi. I have divided my entire article into two parts. In the first part, it is bad for Bangladesh. And in the second part, I will discuss the good for Bangladesh.
Bad for Bangladesh.
It is undeniable that India has been a friendly country for us since the pre-independence period. The path to independence was made smoother because this country extended its helping hand to us. But notice, I have used the word “friendly”, not “friendly” country! Friendly and friend do not carry the same meaning. In the language of foreign policy, friendliness with neighboring countries is important, not friendship!
If we review the past 15 years of the rule of Honorable Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, we can see that she was very tactful in her friendly dealings with every country, but never behaved like a “friend”. There was a time when whenever there was an election in the US, the country’s politicians would open the oil cans before the election results were announced. This is not seen during Sheikh Hasina’s tenure. Her defense strategy was so strong that world leaders had to think twice about commenting on her.
Back to the context, how justified is it for us to be excited about India’s defense deal with the United States?
India sheltered Sheikh Hasina, India’s tested friend, at her worst. And gave her freedom of communication. The question may be, did India not know that the situation in Bangladesh would be so bad? Where Russia warned the Sheikh Hasina government about a “color revolution” before the December 2023 elections, what role did India actually play?
This is the difference between friendly and friend. India is not a stupid country to digest this so quickly that a small country is moving forward under the leadership of Sheikh Hasina! No country will look at this as a foreign policy strategy in a good light. However, since Sheikh Hasina was friendly towards India in her foreign policy, India has expressed gratitude by sheltering her or rescuing her at the last moment.
This is the behavior of a big country. We have to accept it and move forward strategically. However, India has taken advantage of the extreme dishonesty of the people of the country, the boundless greed of politicians and international conspiracies. When greed and jealousy work within a family, the neighbors take advantage of that opportunity to destroy the family and benefit themselves.
The departure of Sheikh Hasina means that Bangladesh’s trade, commerce and development have all been destroyed. Knowing this, India is still playing the role of a silent spectator in the removal of Sheikh Hasina’s government. Behind this, the direction of trade, which took a great turn during the previous Sheikh Hasina’s tenure, is now towards India. In this anarchy of law and order, no investor will want to invest. As a skilled ruler, Sheikh Hasina knew and ensured whatever investors wanted. As a friendly country, India said yes to transit facilities for the development of the communication system. However, just when Bangladesh could have benefited, India played a responsible role in the fall of an elected government by showing its professionalism.
Sheikh Hasina has learned from her father, the father of independence, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, that Bangladesh is that beautiful helpless woman in the classroom whom everyone wants to have. Everyone tries to manipulate, show friendliness and greed to enjoy her, there is a fight over her and in the end no one fails to get her and as a result the woman is humiliated. Like her father, she has tried with all her might to save Bangladesh from being humiliated. No matter how friendly India is, they know how to find mineral resources in the world market. India knows how important Bangladesh is due to its geographical location. That is why I see the bad for Bangladesh in the defense agreement with the United States.
Like Sheikh Hasina, I agree that Bangladesh, as a small country, is not ready for any war. On the other hand, after the 1971 war, Bangladesh was economically ahead during Sheikh Hasina’s tenure, but now Bangladesh is in a worse condition than a bottomless basket. Bangladesh will be crushed by India’s strategy. Arms trade will increase. There will be a risk of militia formation. Pakistan has prepared its militia forces in Bangladesh with a kind of nod from India.
After about a year and a half, this agreement between the United States and India will pave the way for Pakistan to be punished. India will not hesitate to open its arms market to Bangladesh under the pretext of its security. As a result, business, trade, and investment in Bangladesh will be closed forever. A terrible disaster will be created in Bangladesh. India will maintain a strict position on the border of Bangladesh for the sake of its security.
Power-hungry individuals like Dr. Yunus are extending military and commercial cooperation to Pakistan and Turkey to establish the popular narrative of “anti-India” created in Bangladesh, which will ultimately be a threat to India’s border security. Pakistani militias have already invested in Bangladesh. The result will be a tragic civil war. Bangladesh will never recover from the wounds of this war. Zainal Abedin’s famine picture will once again create a perfect opportunity.
The saddest thing would be that in such a situation, India would block the way for Honorable Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to return home in its own interest, to punish Bangladesh and keep the border safe. It would not be possible for India if Sheikh Hasina were in Bangladesh, India knows very well that Bangabandhu’s daughter Sheikh Hasina cannot be bought like her father.
Good for Bangladesh.
Bangladesh, with an area of 130,000 square kilometers, shares the largest border area with India. It is about 4,096 kilometers long. Bordered by important regions of India like West Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura and Mizoram, “Bangladesh” is a name that has always been considered very important for India’s border security and national security.
The architect of independence, Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, was very knowledgeable in foreign policy and maintained friendly relations with a large and powerful neighboring country like India. During his tenure, the Indian government extended a very warm relationship and help, which played an important role in our independence. Bangabandhu, as a true leader, knew the limitations of “Bangladesh” as a newly independent country. He knew the importance of India as a large neighbor and for the national security of Bangladesh.
He knew with his eyes that Bangladesh was geographically located in the most sensitive or safest place. He was not willing to gamble like the Pakistanis for the national and economic security of the country. Surrounded on three sides and connected to a large seaport, Bangladesh was important to a large country like India, so Bangabandhu considered this position seriously until his death. He knew what the consequences of ruining relations with India, which was important for culture, economy and national security, and falling into the trap of temporary Western friendship could be. As the head of a newly independent state, he had to endure immense pain. He had to receive threats or promises of relief! As a result, he also had to take the false responsibility for the tragic famine in Bangladesh. Because he was not interested in behaving like a submissive head of state, he was killed on August 15, 1975, along with almost all his family.
Bangabandhu’s two daughters, Sheikh Hasina and Sheikh Rehana, survived to keep the flame of Bengali liberation alive. As the worthy daughter of Bangabandhu, Sheikh Hasina knew the importance of good relations with India for the interests of Bangladesh. The most important thing to keep in mind as a head of government is to understand one’s limitations and to achieve one’s interests and rights with friendliness through very strategic behavior. Although false attempts have been made to introduce Sheikh Hasina as an agent of India like her father in various ways, Sheikh Hasina has achieved enclaves from India with great strategy and has been able to achieve an internationally recognized complex issue like maritime boundaries. She did not fail to achieve her fair share as much as she gave to her large neighbor India with the same strategy. Like her father, she was unwilling to let the small and beautiful Bangladesh fall victim to the interests of the United States. Despite various threats, she has made every effort to gradually bring Bangladesh into the ranks of developing countries.
The reason for giving so much role above is that a country like India understands the importance of Bangladesh. This country has been under threat of security by Pakistan due to various Western political manipulations since the beginning of the creation of East Pakistan. Then, when East Pakistan became independent and became “Bangladesh”, Bangabandhu tried to repair the border security. After his death, for a long time since 1975, there was safe movement of extremists on the border with the help of the then military government and the ISI. Due to the deliberate neglect of the then government, extremism increased on the India-Bangladesh border, which was an uncomfortable issue for India.
During the Sheikh Hasina government’s tenure from 1996 to 2001, Bangladesh’s relations with India gradually warmed up due to Sheikh Hasina’s zero tolerance towards terrorism. When Sheikh Hasina’s government fell from power in 2001, the India-Bangladesh border area again became a haven for terrorism. Bangladesh’s relations with India cooled down again due to smuggling, drugs, weapons and being a route and shelter for the separatists of Assam. It is clear from this that Sheikh Hasina has always been successful in her test of friendship with India. Therefore, India views this family with great importance for its own interests.
India may have already understood the trend of regime change by the Deep State in the subcontinent. Since the national elections in the United States were held immediately after the regime change in Bangladesh, India had to wait for their best time for strategic reasons. The reason for this wait was to understand the US’s mindset. There is no place for hot-headedness in strategic language in foreign policy. That is why India waited until the elections.
As a result of this wait, even though Donald Trump, known as a friend of Narendra Modi, arrived, India saw Trump’s double face within a few days. Although Trump got the Deep State into trouble for his own interests, he changed his tune a few days later for the interests of the United States. Experts believe that it was out of the United States’ interest not to throw Trump’s new presidency into turmoil again. The reason for this is believed to be that several video footages of Trump as important evidence in the much-discussed Epstein case are in the hands of Deep State operatives, which the Trump government can throw out at any moment.
In this silence, various agreements were made under various pressures by the illegal interim head of Bangladesh, Dr. Yunus, in the interest of not disclosing the conditions. The presence of US troops in the Chittagong Hill Tracts of Bangladesh can be seen under various pretexts. Various controversial and suspicious steps were taken, including handing over the Chittagong port to foreigners, restricting the business of illegal immigrants and the movement of tourists in St. Martin. Meanwhile, the loud presence of the Bangladeshi army and government along with the Pakistani army and ISI became a cause of discomfort for India.
Pouring cold water on the warmth of the relationship between friends Trump and Modi, Trump’s tariff war basically shook India’s nerves. They considered all aspects and fixed their relationship with China overnight. On the other hand, due to their relationship with Russia, India’s strategy against China and Russia, these superpowers, died in the field. Since India, China and Russia are much more important to global superpowers than the four annas of Trump’s tariffs, Trump came out of his stupor and sat down for talks with India. Tariff rates were reduced and the much-discussed defense agreement was signed. In light of this agreement, the United States will naturally not be able to do anything that will harm India’s interests. One of these is undoubtedly Bangladesh and its adjacent borders.
In Bangladesh, therefore, Jamaat-e-Islami, BNP and of course the ISI and the fundamentalist groups that have established themselves under the patronage of Dr. Yunus will either have to leave or die a miserable death. Yunus and his associates will either be given an unconditional opportunity to leave the country or they will spend the rest of their lives in prison. The army will have to erase its disgrace by participating in the elections in Bangladesh in a healthy manner, as advised by India, for the rest of their lives.
Now it remains to be seen whether India will consider Bangladesh as an enemy and crack down on the current extremists, as it has done with Pakistan. Or, as it has always done, consider Bangladesh as a friend and ensure border security by bringing stability and a friendly elected government to the country with a 4,000 km border.
However, after the India-US defense agreement, friends Trump and Modi certainly do not want another threat like Ukraine or Pakistan to exist next to India. The future of Bangladesh depends on whether they want this or not, whether Bangladesh will be a war-torn country or a cooperative friendly country!
Victory to Bangladesh. Victory to Bangla. Victory to Bangabandhu. Victory to Sheikh Hasina.
-Shah Waiz
Germany
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