What You See Before Your Eyes—Do You Know the Reality Behind the Scenes?

-Saifur Rahman, technologist and political analyst, Sweden

---

A few days ago, we learned that the United States has waived tariffs on the import of medicines from Bangladesh. This means that we will now export more medicines to America. Undoubtedly, this is good news!

But let’s take a look at the kind of crisis the pharmaceutical industry in Bangladesh has been going through in the last two years and how this important industrial sector is increasingly facing disaster.

First, let’s look at the incidents of fires in pharmaceutical factories.

1) 28 December 2024 — Bristol Pharma Limited, Konabari, Gazipur. Four workers were burnt in a fire and explosion in a chemical drum.

2) October 19, 2025 — Incepta Pharmaceuticals, Dhamrai. A fire broke out in the service area of ​​the factory.

3) March 16, 2026 — Opsonin Pharmaceuticals, Barisal. Fire breaks out at Rupatli’s Global Capsules factory.

4) October 14, 2026 — Drug International, Tongi, Gazipur. A terrible fire broke out in the Cherag Ali area. According to a report by Bangladesh Sangbad Sangstha (BSS), 16 units of the fire service worked to bring the fire under control.

These are just fire incidents. Now let’s look at the news of the closure of pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical raw material manufacturing plants.

1) July 15, 2025 — Libra Infusions Limited, Mirpur. The Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) found the company’s head office and saline production plant closed during an inspection. Information about the company’s financial crisis has also been published.

2) June 25, 2026 — Active Fine Chemicals Ltd. DSE inspection found complete shutdown of pharmaceutical raw material (API) production.

3) July 9, 2026 — AFC Agro Biotech Limited. The company’s biopharmaceutical and biochemical manufacturing plant was found closed.

4) July 29, 2026 — Gonoshasthaya Basic Chemical Limited. News was published that the production of raw materials for paracetamol had stopped due to a gas shortage.

It doesn’t end here.

According to a report by The Business Standard published on October 12, 2026, saline production has been suspended or reduced in companies such as Square, Beximco, Opsonin, OSL, Essential Drugs and Popular Pharma.
The Bangladesh Pharmaceutical Industry Association said that the production of many essential medicines has become unprofitable due to increasing production costs and controlled drug prices.

Another report in Prothom Alo in August 2026 revealed that production at various ACI factories has decreased due to gas shortages. On the other hand, Square Pharmaceuticals has to rely on diesel to keep its factories in Pabna and Kaliakoir running.

These are not complete statistics. It is not certain that not all of the fires mentioned resulted in production shutdowns, and that not all of the factories that were closed have closed within the past two years. Nevertheless, these incidents provide a picture of the growing pressure and crisis on the pharmaceutical industry in Bangladesh.

According to various media reports, Bangladesh’s imports from the United States have increased several times, while exports have decreased alarmingly.

In such a situation, the news of the US tariff reduction is undoubtedly positive. But the question is, when the country’s production system is disrupted by energy shortages, high prices of raw materials, financial uncertainty, and stagnant investment, how much can exports be increased by just getting tariff reductions?

The trade agreement that the Yunus government touted as a success is now showing its real economic benefits, long-term liabilities, and negative impact on domestic industry.

Now let’s see what the IMF’s forecast says about Bangladesh’s economy.

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast, Bangladesh’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth could fall to just 3.2 percent in the current fiscal year. On the other hand, the annual average inflation could be 10.9 percent.

The concern is that there is no promising picture of a strong economic recovery in the next few years.
According to the aforementioned forecast—

* Fiscal year 2027-28: GDP growth of 2.2 percent.
* Fiscal year 2028-29: GDP growth of 2.8 percent.
* Fiscal year 2029-30: GDP growth of 2.9 percent.
* Fiscal year 2030-31: GDP growth of 3 percent.

In other words, if this forecast is implemented, there is no possibility of significant dynamism returning to the Bangladeshi economy in the next few years.

Such a forecast is extremely worrying for a country that once achieved GDP growth of close to 8 percent.

Think about it, why are investors turning their backs on Bangladesh?

A country’s economy does not just stand on political speeches, foreign deals or photo ops at investment conferences. Investment requires political stability, rule of law, uninterrupted energy supply, policy consistency, a safe business environment and long-term trust. What has happened in the last two years that investors are losing confidence in Bangladesh like this?

How can new investment come to a country where industries are forced to reduce production due to the energy crisis, where businessmen suffer from uncertainty about the future, and where there are concerns about the law and order situation?

When a country is gripped by anarchy, political uncertainty, and weak governance, why would domestic and foreign investors risk their capital there?

Bangladesh’s economic crisis cannot be explained solely by the excuse of the global situation. The government’s policies, decisions, energy management, industry-friendly environment, and ability to maintain law and order must also be questioned.

Now ask yourself—

In a country where existing industries are struggling to survive, what hope will new investors have?

And how far can Bangladesh move forward by simply promoting the success of foreign trade agreements without strengthening the country’s production system? Ask yourself further, how much responsibility do you have for the worst GDP growth in the last 38 years?