Afghanistan’s Big Win Complicates Equation as Bangladesh Need a Big Victory to Reach Final

A lot depended on the match between Zimbabwe and Afghanistan in the United Arab Emirates. Bangladesh, despite not taking the field in Abu Dhabi on Monday, had their eyes on the outcome of the match between the two teams.

If Zimbabwe had won, the Tigers would have had an easy path to the final; in that case, they would have reached the final by just one win against Afghanistan. But Afghanistan has left Bangladesh in a very difficult situation by defeating Zimbabwe by a huge margin of 158 runs. Now, with all three teams having a chance of winning one match each, the fate of the final depends on the run rate (NRR). If Bangladesh is to reach the final, they will have to beat Afghanistan in the last match and also surpass Zimbabwe’s run rate. In that case, the red-green representatives have no alternative but to win by a huge margin.

Batting first, Afghanistan posted a massive total of 294 for 4. They built on this solid foundation with Sediqullah Atal’s 102 off 110 balls and Ibrahim Zadran’s 90 off 96 balls.

Sikandar Raja’s Zimbabwe, batting in a 295-run target, were never in a good position. They were eventually bowled out for 136. The middle order was vulnerable as Craig Ervine, the highest scorer in the previous match, was ruled out due to injury. Afghan pacer Fazlul Haq Farooqui and mystery spinner AM Ghazanfar took advantage of that opportunity. Zimbabwe quickly fell under pressure, losing 4 wickets for 43 runs.

Sikandar Raja and Ryan Burl then took a defensive approach. Forgetting about winning, they were trying to reach only 196 runs, so that despite the loss, they could maintain the run rate and secure the final.

But their strategy did not work either. Raja was dismissed for 48 runs off 80 balls, and Rashid Khan dismissed Barle, who had made 31 runs off 63 balls. After the break of this pair, the rest of the batting lineup collapsed in a hurry.
Zimbabwe’s run rate, which was quite favorable (+1.980) after the huge 99-run win against Bangladesh, has dropped to -0.590 after this miserable loss.
The equation of the tournament is now very clear. If Bangladesh loses to Afghanistan in the last group match, then the Afghans will enter the final along with Zimbabwe. On the other hand, if Bangladesh wants to make it to the final, they will have to overcome the big gap in run rate as well as defeat Afghanistan.